This thread is just downright depressing. I was first peeved that I missed it because I like all this stuff. I find it interesting how people can have access to the same information and yet come up with wildly different conclusions. Then, however, I got into the nitty gritty and by page two I was pissed off.
I find it funny/horrifying that so-called people of sound mind can not correlate correctly between cause and effect. Or that they first look at anything with such distrust that if it goes against the status quo it must be propaganda. I’m getting off track from my point and it is very specific...
People, no matter which side of the coin, are generally stupid. By which I mean we all like to grasp at ideas and take snippets of information and cross reference them against long held beliefs or “knowledge” to see how it aligns with our place in the world. Unless you work on the front line of any field you will never acquire all the knowledge required to make an informed decision about anything. It is for this reason that I don’t vote. It would take me a lifetime to fully understand what (not whom) I was voting for and even then the people tasked with carrying out any particular manifesto aren’t qualified enough to take on the role anyway.
I do, however, feel the need to trust something in this world. Without that there is nothing to stop from going mad. This lack of belonging was part of what almost drove me to the edge a few years ago. So, no matter how depressing the outcome, I do trust science. I trust that figures can be misrepresented, misinterpreted, manipulated but not misread. I trust that, for the most part, frontline research scientists are only on the search for knowledge, not in the effort to make the facts fit, but to find out what the facts are in the first place. As with everything on this godforsaken planet, capitalism is often the main catalyst for any venture, but in general, the people at the heart of any scientific research don’t reap the rewards.
So going back to my original point, people are stupid. We don’t get subtleties. We take 2+2 and often get 5 because we’re not in possession of enough of the facts or because we can’t wrap our head around often simple concepts. There was a point about modelling and hurricanes earlier on and that’s what really got me going...
It’s the subtleties. This is probably not a fool proof analogy, but its the best I can come up with (people are stupid, remember). Take going shopping for groceries; you take a list with you and get a select few items. The brands may vary, but the list remains the same. This is a model for global warming. While there will always be subtle variations, the outcome is predictable. However, on your way to the till you see some extra things you weren’t planning on purchasing and even some at the till itself because there are so many more things available to purchase than you can remember or that you even knew about and so you buy some things you never expected to. This is hurricane modelling. The variables are so many in such a short time frame, relatively, that making a definitive prediction on the outcome is far more difficult.
I know, I know. Yea but, no but.