Antique Chinese Bonsai Pots as Investment?

JackHammer

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Just to be clear on terminology, collecting pots would be speculation. You are speculating that the price (against the dollar/or whatever) will rise. You are likely correct but there is a chance you are wrong. An investment is defined as an income generating vehicle. Renting out property, or dividend stocks both generate income which puts them in the investment category. At the point where these do not provide income, they become speculations.
 

Adair M

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Just to be clear on terminology, collecting pots would be speculation. You are speculating that the price (against the dollar/or whatever) will rise. You are likely correct but there is a chance you are wrong. An investment is defined as an income generating vehicle. Renting out property, or dividend stocks both generate income which puts them in the investment category. At the point where these do not provide income, they become speculations.
I’m not so sure I agree with your definition. Would not buying Microsoft stock in 1995 not be considered an investment? The company was plenty profitable, just didn’t pay a dividend. The company retained it’s cash in Retained Earnings. Investors preferred having Capital Gains rather than Dividends because of the more favorable tax treatment.

But, there is some truth to your statement. Is buying gold, raw land, bit coins, etc. an investment or speculation?

Everyone knew that at some time in the future, assuming Microsoft stayed profitable, it would start paying a dividend. And it does, now. Gold doesn’t. Raw land doesn’t either, and actually consumes money as you have to pay property tax on it.

Is purchasing fine art an investment?

Anyway... from what I’ve seen, the prices of Antique Chinese pots has risen as bonsai becomes more popular in the US. The Chinese are buying back the old pots from the Japanese. So the supply available is shrinking. Limited supply combined with rising demand begets higher prices. IMO.
 

JackHammer

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I’m not so sure I agree with your definition. Would not buying Microsoft stock in 1995 not be considered an investment? The company was plenty profitable, just didn’t pay a dividend. The company retained it’s cash in Retained Earnings. Investors preferred having Capital Gains rather than Dividends because of the more favorable tax treatment.

But, there is some truth to your statement. Is buying gold, raw land, bit coins, etc. an investment or speculation?

Everyone knew that at some time in the future, assuming Microsoft stayed profitable, it would start paying a dividend. And it does, now. Gold doesn’t. Raw land doesn’t either, and actually consumes money as you have to pay property tax on it.

Is purchasing fine art an investment?

Anyway... from what I’ve seen, the prices of Antique Chinese pots has risen as bonsai becomes more popular in the US. The Chinese are buying back the old pots from the Japanese. So the supply available is shrinking. Limited supply combined with rising demand begets higher prices. IMO.
All very good points. This was a hard lesson for me to learn. Yes Microsoft would be a speculation at its founding, just as Bitcoin, gold and fine art are today. Yes, it is often in everyone's best interest to not pay a dividend so the company can leverage existing cash. This doesn't mean that you can't make money speculating, but you are speculating, not investing. Investing isn't nearly as exciting as speculating.
 

Adair M

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All very good points. This was a hard lesson for me to learn. Yes Microsoft would be a speculation at its founding, just as Bitcoin, gold and fine art are today. Yes, it is often in everyone's best interest to not pay a dividend so the company can leverage existing cash. This doesn't mean that you can't make money speculating, but you are speculating, not investing. Investing isn't nearly as exciting as speculating.
I think “speculation” is a type of an “investment”. When you invest in something, you’re employing today’s capital for a future return. That future return could be a steady cash flow, or it could be an increase in the asset value.

Going back to the Microsoft example... buying MSFT today, is that an investment? Or speculation? Yes, it pays a dividend. But I think most investors buy the stock today because they think the stock price will rise. So, using your definition, it’s speculation. But, isn’t that pretty much the case on all stocks? Don’t most (if not all) owners of stock purchase their shares because they want their stock to increase in value? If they only wanted the income, they would buy bonds instead. There’s your steady cash flow. But bonds, unfortunately, don’t keep up with inflation. The principle gets repaid at maturity, but it has lost buying power due to inflation . So, what would you call an “investment” in a bond?
 

JackHammer

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"When you invest in something, you’re employing today’s capital for a future return" - yep! But if you buy a bonsai pot, bitcoin or gold, you can only speculate that the value will increase, it is not guaranteed.

Anything with income is investment, anything that does not have income is a speculation. If you are buying something that is overvalued for it's relative income, it becomes both an investment and a speculation. Yes, bonds would be investments, but do not keep up with inflation so they would not be an ideal vehicle for most individuals. They would be an investment, just a bad one. :)
I have a handful of dividend stocks that have stayed flat for several years. The only reason that I keep them is because I get a dividend each quarter. I don't care what the daily price is because it doesn't matter, I am interested in the payout.

Speculation as a word has a negative connotation, similar to gambling. Because of this, brokerage firms won't use the word. You can make money gambling, but you wouldn't say that you are an investor. ...unless you say you want to invest in lucky number 21!
 

Adair M

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"When you invest in something, you’re employing today’s capital for a future return" - yep! But if you buy a bonsai pot, bitcoin or gold, you can only speculate that the value will increase, it is not guaranteed.

Anything with income is investment, anything that does not have income is a speculation. If you are buying something that is overvalued for it's relative income, it becomes both an investment and a speculation. Yes, bonds would be investments, but do not keep up with inflation so they would not be an ideal vehicle for most individuals. They would be an investment, just a bad one. :)
I have a handful of dividend stocks that have stayed flat for several years. The only reason that I keep them is because I get a dividend each quarter. I don't care what the daily price is because it doesn't matter, I am interested in the payout.

Speculation as a word has a negative connotation, similar to gambling. Because of this, brokerage firms won't use the word. You can make money gambling, but you wouldn't say that you are an investor. ...unless you say you want to invest in lucky number 21!
Your dividend stock with flat returns are basically bonds, then. If you expect this to continue, then a way to increase your return would be to sell covered calls on them. You would receive the call premium with little risk of being called away.

In general, I think the term “speculation” implies a short term view. While “investment” implies a long term view.

Antique pots have an advantage over “investing” in bonsai trees in that they won’t die, but they can break if dropped. I think yengling is planning on keeping his Antique pots for a long time, and isn’t planning to flip them for a profit.

Anyone interested in speculation... can I interest you in some rare tulip bulbs?
 

Dav4

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Dav4

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chicago1980

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I gotta ask... where is this pot for sale, what do you know about it, and what is the asking price? It looks to be Nakawatari era (I'd have to research those chop marks to be sure), apparently in good shape from the pictures, and pretty usable.
I am always looking at the pots available for purchase on the internet, auction sites, private sellers, and Facebook auction site. I do not know much beyond the pictures and seal. size is 11 x 3 inches or so.
Screen Shot 2021-01-21 at 2.20.47 PM.png
 

hinmo24t

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"When you invest in something, you’re employing today’s capital for a future return" - yep! But if you buy a bonsai pot, bitcoin or gold, you can only speculate that the value will increase, it is not guaranteed.

Anything with income is investment, anything that does not have income is a speculation. If you are buying something that is overvalued for it's relative income, it becomes both an investment and a speculation. Yes, bonds would be investments, but do not keep up with inflation so they would not be an ideal vehicle for most individuals. They would be an investment, just a bad one. :)
I have a handful of dividend stocks that have stayed flat for several years. The only reason that I keep them is because I get a dividend each quarter. I don't care what the daily price is because it doesn't matter, I am interested in the payout.

Speculation as a word has a negative connotation, similar to gambling. Because of this, brokerage firms won't use the word. You can make money gambling, but you wouldn't say that you are an investor. ...unless you say you want to invest in lucky number 21!
its an investment if the same principle has appreciated in the past; objectively. otherwise, it is just speculation. and just because it has appreciated in the past, doesnt mean it couldnt depreciate or act the same way consistently.

there does seem to be a trend toward gardening or bonsai (covid), but that also comes with personal economics at higher value.

what weighs in more, a trendy new market that will appreciate chinese pots, or people going with the ocean state job lot version of the same pot, in todays climate?

id personally lean on side of caution with an 'investment' of bonsai pots but to each their own


speaking of covid investments (i bought royal Caribbean in march and made a sale maybe a month ago. also cashed in on the burning and riots and stacked up on a major player in tasers. called AAXN Axon body cameras and taser makers) if you cant beat them, join them
 

Dav4

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I am always looking at the pots available for purchase on the internet, auction sites, private sellers, and Facebook auction site. I do not know much beyond the pictures and seal. size is 11 x 3 inches or so.
View attachment 350230
Ok, so 200 years old... very nice if authentic, and likely to command a very high price. I'd only get something like this from a reputable dealer/source... and I'd personally love to own it or one like it. Ryan and Matty O would be the only guys I'd think about purchasing this from but there are probably other reputable sellers I'm unfamiliar with.
 

Leo in N E Illinois

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Collecting pots, speculating on pots, is an approach I would not recommend as a the return is risky and very prone to wild fluctuations in value.

Biggest hazard is the lack of liquidity. If you have a high end pot, with a documented provenance, were you to need to sell it, you might post it on one or more of the on line auction sites. It may take weeks, or months or even years, for someone to come along who wants that particular size, shape and color pot at the price you list. If you lower the price, you increase the probability of a sale but it can still take time. If you end up in the situation of needing a quick sale, you might have to accept an offer only a small fraction of the original estimate of its value. A single pot, with no time pressure for sale, is at its maximum value. The least valuable is a large group of pots that have to be sold all at once.

Another hazard, is loss of provenance, and lack of provenance. I'm 66 years old, I've been collecting bonsai pots, just a few a year, since I was 25 years old. Some pots I bought with detailed provenance, like who it was made by and when it was made, the details have been lost. Forgotten. Piles of papers with receipts thrown out when clearing out old crap. Receipts that have become illegible due to paper or ink deteriorating. Bad memory. When I first bought some fine pottery, I did not think the provenance was that important when I was first getting started. And of course, not all chop marks and signatures are easy to read. Many of my best pots, or at least my personal favorites, I've completely forgotten who made them. Oh, take digital pictures, make a database on your laptop. What happens when the laptop crashes, or you die and your next of kin don't have your password? Old fashioned paper nestled in with the pot is probably best. But what about pots with trees in them? Yes, keeping records straight can really be a problem.

In addition to "loss of provenance", there is accidental inaccurate provenance, and deliberate false provenance that can severely affect final sale price of a pot. Back in the day, I bought a number of pots from a woman in the north suburbs of Chicago (some of you old farts will remember her) she had a number of behavioral diagnostic codes in her medical file. Especially when off her medication she would fabricate histories for various items around her bonsai shop. The first time or two you meet her, you might not realize what part of what she was saying was fiction, what was fact. She was the source of a number of my early purchases. For some, time has proven to be good, including a couple of early Bigei pots, but other purchases from her later proved to be production grade at best. I can't get upset, I took the bait. I also know she could not help herself when off her medication. I really enjoyed being around her, when her meds were in the "sweet zone".

But there are many Ebay sellers, and others, who mis-represent the provenance of their pots. The problem with ceramics, is it is impossible to date a ceramic just from appearance of the clay. Some things can look really old, but actually be new, some can look quite new, but actually be very old, just never used. And the seller can spin what ever yarn they want.

I bet even reputable dealers occasionally end up picking up a few pieces that are not "true to their provenance". Even they can get taken by either an unscrupulous seller, or a seller that honestly was mis-informed. The result is some "junk pots" or pots with bad provenances can be "laundered" by moving through the hands of reputable sellers. So even buying from a reputable seller is not an absolute guarantee that the pot's provenance will be "true".

So lack of liquidity, in that "quick sales" will often result in significantly less than peak return. The issues with preserving provenances. These two problems really make the "idea" of speculating, or investing in bonsai ceramics a project that is very unlikely to return on investment.

Unless, you scale up to the point where you can "average out" your yield. If you always have a few pots on auction sites, never let them go until you "get your price", and have a large enough pool of stock that if a pot doesn't sell this week, you just put it back on the shelf and put up a couple different others. But that sounds like a near full time job. A few like Matt Ouwinga can make it work. But most of us don't have the time, energy and background knowledge to make it work.

So for the average bonsai hobby grower, collect pots that you like, pots that you think you can use. Do not buy with the thought of reselling at a profit.

If you really want to turn buying and selling of pots into an income stream, you need to plan on putting serious effort into learning how to authenticate provenances. You will need to acquire the type of knowledge people like Ryan Bell and Matt Ouwinga have. If you don't educate yourself you are very likely to run into problems, and are likely to not make the money you would have hoped.
 
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hinmo24t

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Collecting pots, speculating on pots, is an approach I would not recommend as a the return is risky and very prone to wild fluctuations in value.

Biggest hazard is the lack of liquidity. If you have a high end pot, with a documented provenance, were you to need to sell it, you might post it on one or more of the on line auction sites. It may take weeks, or months or even years, for someone to come along who wants that particular size, shape and color pot at the price you list. If you lower the price, you increase the probability of a sale but it can still take time. If you end up in the situation of needing a quick sale, you might have to accept an offer only a small fraction of the original estimate of its value. A single pot, with no time pressure for sale, is at its maximum value. The least valuable is a large group of pots that have to be sold all at once.

Another hazard, is loss of provenance, and lack of provenance. I'm 66 years old, I've been collecting bonsai pots, just a few a year, since I was 25 years old. Some pots I bought with detailed provenance, like who it was made by and when it was made, the details have been lost. Forgotten. Piles of papers with receipts thrown out when clearing out old crap. Receipts that have become illegible due to paper or ink deteriorating. Bad memory. When I first bought some fine pottery, I did not think the provenance was that important when I was first getting started. And of course, not all chop marks and signatures are easy to read. Many of my best pots, or at least my personal favorites, I've completely forgotten who made them. Oh, take digital pictures, make a database on your laptop. What happens when the laptop crashes, or you die and your next of kin don't have your password? Old fashioned paper nestled in with the pot is probably best. But what about pots with trees in them? Yes, keeping records straight can really be a problem.

In addition to "loss of provenance", there is accidental inaccurate provenance, and deliberate false provenance that can severely affect final sale price of a pot. Back in the day, I bought a number of pots from a woman in the north suburbs of Chicago (some of you old farts will remember her) she had a number of behavioral diagnostic codes in her medical file. Especially when off her medication she would fabricate histories for various items around her bonsai shop. The first time or two you meet her, you might not realize what part of what she was saying was fiction, what was fact. She was the source of a number of my early purchases. For some, time has proven to be good, including a couple of early Bigei pots, but other purchases from her later proved to be production grade at best. I can't get upset, I took the bait. I also know she could not help herself when off her medication. I really enjoyed being around her, when her meds were in the "sweet zone".

But there are many Ebay sellers, and others, who mis-represent the provenance of their pots. The problem with ceramics, is it is impossible to date a ceramic just from appearance of the clay. Some things can look really old, but actually be new, some can look quite new, but actually be very old, just never used. And the seller can spin what ever yarn they want.

I bet even reputable dealers occasionally end up picking up a few pieces that are not "true to their provenance". Even they can get taken by either an unscrupulous seller, or a seller that honestly was mis-informed. The result is some "junk pots" or pots with bad provenances can be "laundered" by moving through the hands of reputable sellers. So even buying from a reputable seller is not an absolute guarantee that the pot's provenance will be "true".

So lack of liquidity, in that "quick sales" will often result in significantly less than peak return. The issues with preserving provenances. These two problems really make the "idea" of speculating, or investing in bonsai ceramics a project that is very unlikely to return on investment.

Unless, you scale up to the point where you can "average out" your yield. If you always have a few pots on auction sites, never let them go until you "get your price", and have a large enough pool of stock that if a pot doesn't sell this week, you just put it back on the shelf and put up a couple different others. But that sounds like a near full time job. A few like Matt Ouwinga can make it work. But most of us don't have the time, energy and background knowledge to make it work.
very smart points in here, imo
 

chicago1980

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its an investment if the same principle has appreciated in the past; objectively. otherwise, it is just speculation. and just because it has appreciated in the past, doesnt mean it couldnt depreciate or act the same way consistently.

there does seem to be a trend toward gardening or bonsai (covid), but that also comes with personal economics at higher value.

what weighs in more, a trendy new market that will appreciate chinese pots, or people going with the ocean state job lot version of the same pot, in todays climate?

id personally lean on side of caution with an 'investment' of bonsai pots but to each their own


speaking of covid investments (i bought royal Caribbean in march and made a sale maybe a month ago. also cashed in on the burning and riots and stacked up on a major player in tasers. called AAXN Axon body cameras and taser makers) if you cant beat them, join them
I support the Royal Caribbean Group with my investment. Hold it, and if any cruise company can come out of this pandemic alive, RC Group is the one I am betting on.

72.66 (today price) is a heavy discount right now if the company can bounce back to previous form in the next 5 years, bought. I will look into AAXX Axon today.
 

chicago1980

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Ok, so 200 years old... very nice if authentic, and likely to command a very high price. I'd only get something like this from a reputable dealer/source... and I'd personally love to own it or one like it. Ryan and Matty O would be the only guys I'd think about purchasing this from but there are probably other reputable sellers I'm unfamiliar with.

Ok, so 200 years old... very nice if authentic, and likely to command a very high price. I'd only get something like this from a reputable dealer/source... and I'd personally love to own it or one like it. Ryan and Matty O would be the only guys I'd think about purchasing this from but there are probably other reputable sellers I'm unfamiliar with.
Unfortunately I have not had a chance to speak with Michael Ryan Bell or Matt O. often. I have spoken with Peter Tea on several occasion and took a couple classes about bonsai pots with him. Unfortunately fakes are part of this industry, I am not sure to what extent.
 

Adair M

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Collecting pots, speculating on pots, is an approach I would not recommend as a the return is risky and very prone to wild fluctuations in value.

Biggest hazard is the lack of liquidity. If you have a high end pot, with a documented provenance, were you to need to sell it, you might post it on one or more of the on line auction sites. It may take weeks, or months or even years, for someone to come along who wants that particular size, shape and color pot at the price you list. If you lower the price, you increase the probability of a sale but it can still take time. If you end up in the situation of needing a quick sale, you might have to accept an offer only a small fraction of the original estimate of its value. A single pot, with no time pressure for sale, is at its maximum value. The least valuable is a large group of pots that have to be sold all at once.

Another hazard, is loss of provenance, and lack of provenance. I'm 66 years old, I've been collecting bonsai pots, just a few a year, since I was 25 years old. Some pots I bought with detailed provenance, like who it was made by and when it was made, the details have been lost. Forgotten. Piles of papers with receipts thrown out when clearing out old crap. Receipts that have become illegible due to paper or ink deteriorating. Bad memory. When I first bought some fine pottery, I did not think the provenance was that important when I was first getting started. And of course, not all chop marks and signatures are easy to read. Many of my best pots, or at least my personal favorites, I've completely forgotten who made them. Oh, take digital pictures, make a database on your laptop. What happens when the laptop crashes, or you die and your next of kin don't have your password? Old fashioned paper nestled in with the pot is probably best. But what about pots with trees in them? Yes, keeping records straight can really be a problem.

In addition to "loss of provenance", there is accidental inaccurate provenance, and deliberate false provenance that can severely affect final sale price of a pot. Back in the day, I bought a number of pots from a woman in the north suburbs of Chicago (some of you old farts will remember her) she had a number of behavioral diagnostic codes in her medical file. Especially when off her medication she would fabricate histories for various items around her bonsai shop. The first time or two you meet her, you might not realize what part of what she was saying was fiction, what was fact. She was the source of a number of my early purchases. For some, time has proven to be good, including a couple of early Bigei pots, but other purchases from her later proved to be production grade at best. I can't get upset, I took the bait. I also know she could not help herself when off her medication. I really enjoyed being around her, when her meds were in the "sweet zone".

But there are many Ebay sellers, and others, who mis-represent the provenance of their pots. The problem with ceramics, is it is impossible to date a ceramic just from appearance of the clay. Some things can look really old, but actually be new, some can look quite new, but actually be very old, just never used. And the seller can spin what ever yarn they want.

I bet even reputable dealers occasionally end up picking up a few pieces that are not "true to their provenance". Even they can get taken by either an unscrupulous seller, or a seller that honestly was mis-informed. The result is some "junk pots" or pots with bad provenances can be "laundered" by moving through the hands of reputable sellers. So even buying from a reputable seller is not an absolute guarantee that the pot's provenance will be "true".

So lack of liquidity, in that "quick sales" will often result in significantly less than peak return. The issues with preserving provenances. These two problems really make the "idea" of speculating, or investing in bonsai ceramics a project that is very unlikely to return on investment.

Unless, you scale up to the point where you can "average out" your yield. If you always have a few pots on auction sites, never let them go until you "get your price", and have a large enough pool of stock that if a pot doesn't sell this week, you just put it back on the shelf and put up a couple different others. But that sounds like a near full time job. A few like Matt Ouwinga can make it work. But most of us don't have the time, energy and background knowledge to make it work.

So for the average bonsai hobby grower, collect pots that you like, pots that you think you can use. Do not buy with the thought of reselling at a profit.

If you really want to turn buying and selling of pots into an income stream, you need to plan on putting serious effort into learning how to authenticate provenances. You will need to acquire the type of knowledge people like Ryan Bell and Matt Ouwinga have. If you don't educate yourself you are very likely to run into problems, and are likely to not make the money you would have hoped.
Anything is only worth what another person is willing to pay for it.

The original poster, Yengling83, I do not believe is interested in becoming a pot dealer. He’s looking to own a selection of usable pots for his collection, and was wondering if the “investment” he made in purchasing the pot(s) would appreciate over time. He’s smart enough not to purchase fakes or reproductions, and has connections to reputable vendors who can and will authenticate his purchases.

One thing I know, they’re not making any more Antique Chinese pots!
 
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