Bonsai Supply Issues! Do it Now

River's Edge

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What is the supply issue like in your neck of the woods?
I thought I would post some observations to see if it matches the experience of others on the forum. For the past couple of years I have found difficulty obtaining supplies for my nursery and Bonsai work in general. First, the shipping costs seemed to skyrocket with tools coming from Japan. One or two suppliers indicated they could no longer ship via postal services and were restricting shipping to more expensive options such as DHL. Next, the products coming from overseas began to experience long delays arriving in containers on ships, along with labour issues and shipping delays from the ports. It took eighteen months for me to receive ( 100) Deroma 8 inch Azalea pots from my supplier who is usually reliable with plenty of inventory. Just recently I needed to order Anderson Flats for the repotting season. Found out that they were on back order for several months and the manufacturer was not planning on a production run any time soon. The manufacturer was good about providing me with a list of distributors who may have some left in stock. Turns out the closest distributor with any quantity in stock was in southern Oregon. However, normal truck transport companies were clogged with high demand and exorbitant charges and surcharges. Additional costs were incurred due to Covid restrictions and cross border travel required.
So my recommendation would be to get your supplies as soon as you can, as it may take a while!
If your local supplier has the goods, purchase them if needed. I am not sure that things will begin to improve for a while.
 

River's Edge

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Maybe if this condition lasts long enough it will encourage people in the Americas to start producing bonsai products. We already have several excellent pot makers over here.
Just a note, the Anderson Flats are produced in Milwaukee Oregon, American product and distribution. I believe the issues are global and affecting citizens world wide. I agree that their are some amazing pots being produced in the USA and have purchased quite a few myself. On that note, many of the best are unable to take additional orders at this time and have very few in supply for sale. At least that is the case with several I contacted.
On a positive note it is great that the American potters are receiving so much support with commissions and sales that there is a current backlog.
 

Canada Bonsai

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I don’t want this to come across as complaining because we still have it very good in North America compared to many other places in the world, but for the sake of the thread here is a description of what i have experienced:

Japan Post stopped shipping to Canada over a year ago now. This was supposed to be ‘temporary’ due to COVID. I speak to Japan Post and Canada Post every single monday for an update, and it does not seem like the service will resume any time soon.

FedEx and DHL are the only options in most cases, and their prices have increased dramatically :

On Wednesday i paid $3000CAD to ship an order that cost me $750CAD for the EXACT same size and greater weight last weight (both with FedEx)

Today I shipped a pot from Japan that i purchased 8 months ago, and I paid $240CAD to ship a box with FedEx (4-5 days) which cost me $48 with Japan Post (10 days) last year for the EXACT size and greater weight. ….that $250 Nakawatari cost me in total $500 instead of $300 😖

BUSINESS DECISIONS
Bringing in tools from Kaneshin has been impossible due to shipping cost — that’s on hold for now.

I’m still bringing in plants from Japan because I’ve already purchased the inventory at auctions/nurseries all year, and the cost of having somebody maintain them in Japan for a year would amount to the difference in shipping (and who knows if the shipping price will go back to ‘normal’ by this time next year, if ever). Moreover, many species have a 10mm (0.4”) limit, and there would be a risk that some species would get thicker than 10mm over the course of a year
 

River's Edge

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I don’t want this to come across as complaining because we still have it very good in North America compared to many other places in the world, but for the sake of the thread here is a description of what i have experienced:

Japan Post stopped shipping to Canada over a year ago now. This was supposed to be ‘temporary’ due to COVID. I speak to Japan Post and Canada Post every single monday for an update, and it does not seem like the service will resume any time soon.

FedEx and DHL are the only options in most cases, and their prices have increased dramatically :

On Wednesday i paid $3000CAD to ship an order that cost me $750CAD for the EXACT same size and greater weight last weight (both with FedEx)

Today I shipped a pot from Japan that i purchased 8 months ago, and I paid $240CAD to ship a box with FedEx (4-5 days) which cost me $48 with Japan Post (10 days) last year for the EXACT size and greater weight. ….that $250 Nakawatari cost me in total $500 instead of $300 😖

BUSINESS DECISIONS
Bringing in tools from Kaneshin has been impossible due to shipping cost — that’s on hold for now.

I’m still bringing in plants from Japan because I’ve already purchased the inventory at auctions/nurseries all year, and the cost of having somebody maintain them in Japan for a year would amount to the difference in shipping (and who knows if the shipping price will go back to ‘normal’ by this time next year, if ever). Moreover, many species have a 10mm (0.4”) limit, and there would be a risk that some species would get thicker than 10mm over the course of a year
Understood, Sometimes the only option is to bite the bullet, other times we have to get creative.
Wednesday was an interesting day for me as well. Up at 3:30 am, took 5:15 ferry from Duke point, Vancouver Island to mainland and crossed the border at 8:am.
Drove to just north of Seattle to take a Covid 19 PCR test in order to return to Canada the next day! After the test I drove through Washington State to just south of Salem Oregon to pick up my 260 Anderson Flats for re-potting older JBP, Japanese maples and Tridents this spring . After loading them at 2:30 in the afternoon drove back to north of Seattle for supper and a motel. had to wait for test results before showing up at the border crossing. Crossed the border at 11 am next morning and caught the ferry back home. All I have to show for this mini vacation is a lot of expenses and my Anderson Flats. Oh, perhaps a little satisfaction at solving the problem for the time being. And or those who need to see it to believe it! 13 stacks of (20) Deep Propagation Trays, known also as FLAT5 It is a good thing I served the substrate over the last month or two.
 

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Canada Bonsai

Shohin
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@River's Edge what an adventure, i’m still jealous!!

Nate from Stuewe quoted me $400 to ship 1 box of 30 AFLAT5 trays (i guess Halifax is quite far from wherever they are!)

It’s cheaper to make them out of wood 😕
 

WNC Bonsai

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I get most of my stuff from Wayne at Stone Lantern and no problems there. Most recently I got some bags of akadama and some pots from Bonsai Learnong Center, again no problems as he had just got in a shipment and had plenty of soil, pots, and tools. Now if I could just get my wife to finish the pots she has been promising me for a year now
 

River's Edge

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@River's Edge what an adventure, i’m still jealous!!

Nate from Stuewe quoted me $400 to ship 1 box of 30 AFLAT5 trays (i guess Halifax is quite far from wherever they are!)

It’s cheaper to make them out of wood 😕
So your still in Halifax, I thought you were on the move.

Well my cedar grow boxes work out to about $15 worth of material only, not including labour and shop supplies. Then in my wet climate they only last 4 or five years. The Anderson flats seem to last forever and are easy to disinfect and re-use for a variety of purposes. Great for seed and cutting propagation as well as grow boxes or acclimation of collected yamadori.

Nate was very helpful but his location is not as convenient as before when I was able to purchase direct from the plant in Milwaukee, Oregon. They have increased pallet quantities to 450 and even if I could have used that many, they did not have any in stock. I guess their business has grown to the point that they only sell through distributors now. I believe the changes came about recently. My round trip was about 1200 km of driving!
 

River's Edge

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I get most of my stuff from Wayne at Stone Lantern and no problems there. Most recently I got some bags of akadama and some pots from Bonsai Learnong Center, again no problems as he had just got in a shipment and had plenty of soil, pots, and tools. Now if I could just get my wife to finish the pots she has been promising me for a year now
Good to hear success stories. Stone Lantern is a long way from the Pacific Northwest, I find the shipping costs high and the time for delivery ( particularly books) can take forever once it crosses the border and enters the Canadian postal system. Wire purchases with shipping and taxes added are huge from that distance! it is cheaper for us to ship from the east coast to the west coast within the USA and then cross the border and pick up items. As soon as international shipping is involved the fees are horrendous.
 

Ohmy222

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Long and geeky post below:

I work in supply chain, specifically imports. Supply Chain in almost every capacity is broken. The root cause is basically COVID and COVID stimulus. Basically for decades the % of money people spent on services vs. stuff has been constant regardless of if the economy was good or bad. COVID broke that. People stopped spending on services because they stopped going on vacation, going to events, going out to eat, etc. Instead they used they bought more stuff. Almost every retailer saw major sales increases especially if it pertains to the home. Since many people spent more time at home they started buying things for the home. Many needed desks, printers, monitors, office chairs, and furniture they didn't have. They replaced gyms with weight sets and treadmills. On top of this the government gave out tons of stimulus money. A qualifying family of 4 got $8,000 or so in a 12 month period and most did not save. That is like 15% bonus for your average worker assuming they kept their job. If they lost their job many got more unemployed. Odd story, but for most people, their situation got much better financially. It should be called out the stock market, real estate market, and even crypto were making people record money too.

The shift to buying 'stuff' was sudden and the supply chain had no time to react. Supply Chains are normally very lean and not built to handle a major spike especially when we went from the world possibly ending to the roaring 20s over night. Stuff also very often comes from outside the US or if it is made in the US may have parts made outside the US. This requires vessels that rival the size of aircraft carriers. The demand is so great that there are not enough ships to ship them. It takes over 2 years to make new ones. Since there is not enough capacity to fill and ship orders the rates have skyrocketed. To give an example, to move from South China to LA (largest volume lane) used to cost ~$1500 per container in 2020 and now costs ~$15,000. That is a 10x increase. Even if you want to pay the price, you may still not get the space or it may take weeks to sail. If someone has a product that is expensive like electronics you can easily absorb that cost. If you are shipping pallets of dirt (heavy and cheap) then your cost just skyrocketed. Bonsai Tonight and Superfly Bonsai used to have the Aoki mix for $50 a bag shipping included and I never worried about it being in stock. They have been out for months for the most part. Jonas got a small batch in recently and his price was $75 a bag. I bought some just so I would have some in Spring. For the first time even major retailers like Walmart and Home Depot have no leverage.

My example was on the most common lane. So S. China to the US is the largest trade lane. Because of this, ocean carriers have taken their vessels and focused them on this lane. If you are shipping on any other lane then it can be almost impossible to ship. A lot of apparel comes from the smaller SE Asia countries and a lot of furniture comes from Vietnam. This has really hit those places hard. Japan to the US is very difficult too. Nike has struggled through this as they source from some pretty low volume areas like Bangledesh where many carriers have just abandoned the service. The high prices have also led to tough decisions as some just elect to wait it out or tolerate more out of stocks. Instead of carrying a widget in 6 colors they opt to carry one in the 2 best selling ones.

The throw more gasoline on the fire, the ports in the US are not efficient and largely hamstrung by unions. The longshoremen unions are quite possibly the strongest in the world and they oppose any increase in hours or any automation. They were already a problem in normal times but cannot handle the increase in containers. Because they can't unload the the freight fast enough, the vessels can't get back to Asia (or elsewhere) to pickup more cargo. So most of these ships are trapped waiting in line in America. So a lane might have a service that used to ship once a week and now only gets 2-3 ships out a month. So you have a shortage of ships and those ships are do less loads per month then they use to but of the US ports.

The port delays have caused the ports to be so full that it slows down the operations inside the port. If a load is local then a trucker will pick up the container but they can't get in the port easily to get one. If it is moving inland then it will get on a railroad. The railroads can't handle the volume so there is a backlog there. This means the railroads are charging crazy rates just like the ocean carrier. The same is happening with trucking too. Since truckers require licensing it takes a while to add new ones. Most of examples are for imports but US trucking has similar issues with skyrocketing rates and long delays. Issues just aren't measured in months.

Covid itself of course plays a part as factories, ports, and warehouses have had to shut down with outbreaks but it is not near the issue you would think. Biggest issue with Covid is the governments. China is very zero-tolerance with Covid so they will shutdown areas with outbreaks. Many postal services have restricted international shipments as called out above. They cite covid concerns but normally it is because they are short of labor so they choose to cover their local mail and sacrifice the international items. The US Postal Service has done this several times. Labor everywhere is short and further adds to the increase in costs everyone is seeing.

I would expect all of these issues to continue for at least 2022 and it could be some into 2023. That is about how long it will take for the new drivers and vessels to start getting added to the system. The ports are still a major problem to the point the government will likely have to do something. Unfortunately the government never helps even when helping. This is why inflation is so high and will likely not go down no matter what you read. I work for a large retailer and I can tell you it is the first time the company has ever had to deal with escalating transportation costs, labor costs, materials costs, and suppliers asking for cost increases all at the same time. If oil were to really spike it would get even worse as fuel (despite the recent surge) is the only thing not significantly higher than pre-pandemic. I can also tell you I don't know of any retailer than wants to raise their prices so despite the news it is not gouging it is real. The only silver bullet to fix this quickly would be a major recession. No one wants that solution.
 

River's Edge

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Long and geeky post below:

I work in supply chain, specifically imports. Supply Chain in almost every capacity is broken. The root cause is basically COVID and COVID stimulus. Basically for decades the % of money people spent on services vs. stuff has been constant regardless of if the economy was good or bad. COVID broke that. People stopped spending on services because they stopped going on vacation, going to events, going out to eat, etc. Instead they used they bought more stuff. Almost every retailer saw major sales increases especially if it pertains to the home. Since many people spent more time at home they started buying things for the home. Many needed desks, printers, monitors, office chairs, and furniture they didn't have. They replaced gyms with weight sets and treadmills. On top of this the government gave out tons of stimulus money. A qualifying family of 4 got $8,000 or so in a 12 month period and most did not save. That is like 15% bonus for your average worker assuming they kept their job. If they lost their job many got more unemployed. Odd story, but for most people, their situation got much better financially. It should be called out the stock market, real estate market, and even crypto were making people record money too.

The shift to buying 'stuff' was sudden and the supply chain had no time to react. Supply Chains are normally very lean and not built to handle a major spike especially when we went from the world possibly ending to the roaring 20s over night. Stuff also very often comes from outside the US or if it is made in the US may have parts made outside the US. This requires vessels that rival the size of aircraft carriers. The demand is so great that there are not enough ships to ship them. It takes over 2 years to make new ones. Since there is not enough capacity to fill and ship orders the rates have skyrocketed. To give an example, to move from South China to LA (largest volume lane) used to cost ~$1500 per container in 2020 and now costs ~$15,000. That is a 10x increase. Even if you want to pay the price, you may still not get the space or it may take weeks to sail. If someone has a product that is expensive like electronics you can easily absorb that cost. If you are shipping pallets of dirt (heavy and cheap) then your cost just skyrocketed. Bonsai Tonight and Superfly Bonsai used to have the Aoki mix for $50 a bag shipping included and I never worried about it being in stock. They have been out for months for the most part. Jonas got a small batch in recently and his price was $75 a bag. I bought some just so I would have some in Spring. For the first time even major retailers like Walmart and Home Depot have no leverage.

My example was on the most common lane. So S. China to the US is the largest trade lane. Because of this, ocean carriers have taken their vessels and focused them on this lane. If you are shipping on any other lane then it can be almost impossible to ship. A lot of apparel comes from the smaller SE Asia countries and a lot of furniture comes from Vietnam. This has really hit those places hard. Japan to the US is very difficult too. Nike has struggled through this as they source from some pretty low volume areas like Bangledesh where many carriers have just abandoned the service. The high prices have also led to tough decisions as some just elect to wait it out or tolerate more out of stocks. Instead of carrying a widget in 6 colors they opt to carry one in the 2 best selling ones.

The throw more gasoline on the fire, the ports in the US are not efficient and largely hamstrung by unions. The longshoremen unions are quite possibly the strongest in the world and they oppose any increase in hours or any automation. They were already a problem in normal times but cannot handle the increase in containers. Because they can't unload the the freight fast enough, the vessels can't get back to Asia (or elsewhere) to pickup more cargo. So most of these ships are trapped waiting in line in America. So a lane might have a service that used to ship once a week and now only gets 2-3 ships out a month. So you have a shortage of ships and those ships are do less loads per month then they use to but of the US ports.

The port delays have caused the ports to be so full that it slows down the operations inside the port. If a load is local then a trucker will pick up the container but they can't get in the port easily to get one. If it is moving inland then it will get on a railroad. The railroads can't handle the volume so there is a backlog there. This means the railroads are charging crazy rates just like the ocean carrier. The same is happening with trucking too. Since truckers require licensing it takes a while to add new ones. Most of examples are for imports but US trucking has similar issues with skyrocketing rates and long delays. Issues just aren't measured in months.

Covid itself of course plays a part as factories, ports, and warehouses have had to shut down with outbreaks but it is not near the issue you would think. Biggest issue with Covid is the governments. China is very zero-tolerance with Covid so they will shutdown areas with outbreaks. Many postal services have restricted international shipments as called out above. They cite covid concerns but normally it is because they are short of labor so they choose to cover their local mail and sacrifice the international items. The US Postal Service has done this several times. Labor everywhere is short and further adds to the increase in costs everyone is seeing.

I would expect all of these issues to continue for at least 2022 and it could be some into 2023. That is about how long it will take for the new drivers and vessels to start getting added to the system. The ports are still a major problem to the point the government will likely have to do something. Unfortunately the government never helps even when helping. This is why inflation is so high and will likely not go down no matter what you read. I work for a large retailer and I can tell you it is the first time the company has ever had to deal with escalating transportation costs, labor costs, materials costs, and suppliers asking for cost increases all at the same time. If oil were to really spike it would get even worse as fuel (despite the recent surge) is the only thing not significantly higher than pre-pandemic. I can also tell you I don't know of any retailer than wants to raise their prices so despite the news it is not gouging it is real. The only silver bullet to fix this quickly would be a major recession. No one wants that solution.
Concise and to the point. I imported goods for 35 years internationally for a business I owned. hearing the full explanation just leads me to a different outcome. recession is around the corner. Expect interest rates to climb, housing prices to decline and unemployment to rise. Given that I am an eternal optimist, I will keep on growing and collecting. things can only improve right!
 

Ohmy222

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Concise and to the point. I imported goods for 35 years internationally for a business I owned. hearing the full explanation just leads me to a different outcome. recession is around the corner. Expect interest rates to climb, housing prices to decline and unemployment to rise. Given that I am an eternal optimist, I will keep on growing and collecting. things can only improve right!
Yes, recession is possible but I think you will just see growth stop and then it will just take a while to correct. Reason is savings rates are very high which is very rare in a heated economy. Recessions generally follow periods where people overextend themselves. This is weird and unprecedented because people are managing to spend more and not incur massive debt at the same time. It will balance out though. Unprecedented also means there is no way to predict it though.
 

leatherback

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Just wait and see what airtravel will cost once covid globally starts to become endemic, and people are en-masse taking their long-distance trips they have been postponing for the last 2 years..

If oil were to really spike it would get even worse as fuel (despite the recent surge) is the only thing not significantly higher than pre-pandemic.
Interestingly, fuel is up I think 50% in Europe compared to a year ago. LPG because of Russia not selling enough to the EU -Which I fully expect to become a lever once they invade the Ukraine-

Thought this was interesting in line with above:
1642233372483.png

Unfortunately the government never helps even when helping. This is why inflation is so high and will likely not go down no matter what you read.
Not sure whether you meant to say that the goverment is cause of the inflation, or whether you refer back to the whole piece. Note that globally inflation in inflating, nothing any local government is causing.

We are seeing a tipping point in globalization of production in my view. The whole stalling of global supply chains will start pushing companies to do what governments have been hinting at for a long time: Back to producing locally where possible. Certainly when it comes to food, I would welcome locally-produced supermarkets, with only crops that cannot be grown locally to come longer distances. (And of course, lets cut the ready-prepared meals and just start cooking fresh again, but that is a whole different story!). Do I need to state that shipping dirt around the globe is insane?
 

Canada Bonsai

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So your still in Halifax, I thought you were on the move.

The move keeps getting delayed by various factors! Right now I have a foot in Nova Scotia and foot in Quebec. I'll be back in Quebec in 2022, hopefully with a greenhouse built and ready before the Fall 2022.

I bought plants in Japan with the expectation that I would be at the next property by now, so over the next 4-6 weeks I am going to be receiving more plants than I keep at the current property in Halifax--I thankfully have a few temporary solutions in place
 

bwaynef

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Interestingly, fuel is up I think 50% in Europe compared to a year ago. LPG because of Russia not selling enough to the EU -Which I fully expect to become a lever once they invade the Ukraine-
February - March 2014, Russia did invade Ukraine (not "the Ukraine" ...which refers to a region) by annexing ("the Autonomous Republic of") Crimea under much the same terms as I expect they'll use with Ukraine proper. In fact, they've already invaded eastern Ukraine proper shortly after the annexation of Crimea. Remember the airliner that was shot down? Those were russian operatives. #offmysoapbox
 

Gr8tfuldad

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I just order 10 Anderson Flats and got them in 3 days. I’m in NJ and they are in Pa though. Still scratching my head as to why it cost $50 to ship them.
 

River's Edge

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I just order 10 Anderson Flats and got them in 3 days. I’m in NJ and they are in Pa though. Still scratching my head as to why it cost $50 to ship them.
Great, one of the reasons I posted was to alert others to a possible shortage upcoming due to manufacturing issues, hence the suggestion to check local distributors and retailers if they are needed this spring. Glad you received yours. Shipping is always an extra, clouded by the current climate that has been led to expect free delivery with online purchases. Online sales have contributed to the misperception that shipping is cheap, when that is the opposite of the truth.
It is expensive to arrange door to door delivery for any package and get it there safely in a timely manner.
Fleet fuel and maintenance, labour costs, insurance etc!
I usually ask myself how much would it cost for me to drive there and pick it up myself and return home. usually the shipping is cheaper. On the other hand sometimes it is impossible to get it done in a timely manner for a reasonable cost. Then it is helpful that I like driving and have the time.
 

leatherback

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February - March 2014, Russia did invade Ukraine (not "the Ukraine" ...which refers to a region) by annexing ("the Autonomous Republic of") Crimea under much the same terms as I expect they'll use with Ukraine proper. In fact, they've already invaded eastern Ukraine proper shortly after the annexation of Crimea. Remember the airliner that was shot down? Those were russian operatives. #offmysoapbox
With over half of the passengers having my nationality, yeah, I have seen and heard a few things.. It is actually what I mean. THey wanted the whole thing then already. Just waiting for a moment -say, if we get a real cold spell- where the EU is really dependent on Russia. Never understood why the EU let itself become that dependent on Russia.
 

Ohmy222

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Not sure whether you meant to say that the goverment is cause of the inflation, or whether you refer back to the whole piece. Note that globally inflation in inflating, nothing any local government is causing.

We are seeing a tipping point in globalization of production in my view. The whole stalling of global supply chains will start pushing companies to do what governments have been hinting at for a long time: Back to producing locally where possible. Certainly when it comes to food, I would welcome locally-produced supermarkets, with only crops that cannot be grown locally to come longer distances. (And of course, lets cut the ready-prepared meals and just start cooking fresh again, but that is a whole different story!). Do I need to state that shipping dirt around the globe is insane?
Really it was just a poor sentence transition from two separate ideas.

I was really stating that the government helping the situation at the ports is likely not to help since the government is incompetent at basically anything. The inflation is because all of these issues drive up the cost of things. It is more expensive to produce, move, and store goods driving price increases. Did government cause this? IMO, yes. The stimulus money worked. If you give me a lot of money the will spend it. They did. Some will argue if it was worth it. Hard to say. I know several people that got their stimulus money and spent it on high dollar projects they had been waiting to do. I know several others that have switched jobs or got promotions too since the job market is so hot. A lot of people benefited financially and now we have higher prices. That is great tradeoff for some and not others and hits certain products harder than others.

There are still macro issues that COVID turned on its head. For instance in the US there was and still is on occasion shortages of toilet paper. The narrative is generally people were panic buying and that caused the shortages. The is not the real story. What caused the shortage is people working from home. When people go to work they use commercial toilet paper bought by their employer. This is normally crap or, even if it is good TP, sold in huge boxes 100 at a time and individually wrapped. When they started working at home they needed residential TP like Charmin that is nicer and sold in 12-packs with pretty packaging. P&G and other companies had TP but they didn't have the consumer product. It is still a problem but they have only slowly ramped up production because they are worried about the pandemic ending and having the reverse problem. The shortage came first, then the panic buying. This happened to a lot of products like free weights, desk chairs, and printer ink which is still scarce.

This could lead to US manufacturing increasing but nothing large scale. The US just doesn't produce a lot of low end products or those that use a lot of labor. It would take quite some time for them to build factories and get up and running and by then the issue would have come to an equilibrium. Considering most think this will not continue forever they won't invest. Those that do currently produce here are definitely benefitting though. I actually think you will see more business go back to importing from China. China labor has gotten a lot more expensive over the last few decades so a lot of 'easy' manufacturing or items that require labor have left China for Vietnam, SE Asia, India, etc. The areas are cheaper but don't have the infrastructure and shipping from S. China while difficult now can be done if you pay. In these other areas it is virtually impossible to ship. I have already seen companies shut down Vietnam production and move back to China so they can get their product out.
 
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