So a Native Chief is speaking with his second-in-command. The chief says to the man, "I feel winter will be quite bad, best to double the firewood." He nods in understanding, and goes about his task.
The Chief, having an acquaintance who works for the board of Meteorology, decides to inquire if his instinct was correct.
"Oh yes... This winter is going to be worse than we expected... Even worse than you anticipated." The chief thanks the man and returns to his camp, instructing the people to collect EVEN MORE firewood.
After a few days, the chief calls on the Meteorologist again, who assures him that his previous estimates were gentle... And winter was going to be EVEN worse...
The chief, who is now, very impressed, thanks the Meteorologist and asks him how he comes up with such precise predictions.
"Well, we could analyze data from current weather patterns and compare them with projected atmospheric conditions and previously collected data...... But truth be told, we've found the best way to predict the oncoming winter is to watch to see how much firewood the native Americans lay out."