Gabler
Masterpiece
I almost missed this little guy crossing the asphalt at night. Finger for scale.
Looks like it's gonna be a cold winter.
- Thread starter Gabler
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Paradox
Imperial Masterpiece
I've heard conflicting predictions.
Farmers Almenac says cold and snowy for the Northeast
Weather scientists say we are in an El Nino pattern which usually brings mild winter for the northeast but they added that the late winter could be cold
Farmers Almenac says cold and snowy for the Northeast
Weather scientists say we are in an El Nino pattern which usually brings mild winter for the northeast but they added that the late winter could be cold
badatusernames
Omono
We're getting cold at night but warmer during the day, a little worried that my trees aren't staying below 38 consistently... but maybe it's not happening for long enough to matter.
Saw the snow report for Sugarloaf and their snow is looking pretty crappy right now, so it may be that El Nino is keeping us oddly mild after all. But we've also had low 20s, and even into the teens this weekend.
I ordered greenhouse paint and put up more plastic sheeting to block the light, the sun shining in can really crank the heat in there during the day.
Saw the snow report for Sugarloaf and their snow is looking pretty crappy right now, so it may be that El Nino is keeping us oddly mild after all. But we've also had low 20s, and even into the teens this weekend.
I ordered greenhouse paint and put up more plastic sheeting to block the light, the sun shining in can really crank the heat in there during the day.
Dav4
Drop Branch Murphy
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Gonna be 52 F here for Xmas next week. Last year, we had snow and dipped to 0 F. If it weren’t for the extremely short days, I’d swear it was March
So odd. We had that last week here in NY with high 50s. There has been frost every morning since and then the temps go back up above freezing.
Mikecheck123
Omono
Happy Winter Solstice to all who celebrate!
Glaucus
Chumono
Weather predictions are mathematically impossible beyond about 3 weeks. Even if you have a supercomputer that has the compute equal to about 100 suns worth of energy per second, even if you have a database that knows the position of every air molecule, the nature of complex systems is that tiny tiny differences in initial conditions can result in completely opposite weather situations. This is why we can't predict the weather in 3 weeks time. But we can predict the climate in 50 years time.
It is simply the nature of complex systems like weather. The lifetime of low or high pressure areas is usually 3 to 4 days. So after that period, new ones appear, which you can still predict, but with some error. Then once those go and you get the third generation, the error margins become quite high. And by the 4th cycle, they could be anywhere. And you literally have no idea where the low-pressure areas and anticyclones would be. The math would simply state they are equally probably to be at almost any position.
It is key to realize that this is an inherit property of these systems. And not an issue of lack of understanding or limited computational power. We can still push predictions to be more accurate, sure. But it becomes exponentially harder to predict 1 more day ahead. Until you fall off a cliff and no amount of knowledge of compute can get you any improvement. Where that point is for weather is still up to debate.
So when people say they can predict that a winter will be mild or cold, usually they talk about 2 to 4 months into the future, it is pure pseudoscience. Sure, there are some multi-year cycles like El Nino that you can predict and that can affect weather. But in the end the local weather will determine if your winter is cold or not.
It is simply the nature of complex systems like weather. The lifetime of low or high pressure areas is usually 3 to 4 days. So after that period, new ones appear, which you can still predict, but with some error. Then once those go and you get the third generation, the error margins become quite high. And by the 4th cycle, they could be anywhere. And you literally have no idea where the low-pressure areas and anticyclones would be. The math would simply state they are equally probably to be at almost any position.
It is key to realize that this is an inherit property of these systems. And not an issue of lack of understanding or limited computational power. We can still push predictions to be more accurate, sure. But it becomes exponentially harder to predict 1 more day ahead. Until you fall off a cliff and no amount of knowledge of compute can get you any improvement. Where that point is for weather is still up to debate.
So when people say they can predict that a winter will be mild or cold, usually they talk about 2 to 4 months into the future, it is pure pseudoscience. Sure, there are some multi-year cycles like El Nino that you can predict and that can affect weather. But in the end the local weather will determine if your winter is cold or not.
I was actually looking into this today and it is celebrated around the world. The Donghzi in China, Yalda in Iran, the Peruvian Inti Raymi (celebrated in June), the Soyal ceremony of the Hopi Indians, St. Lucia's day in Scandinavia and the Saturnalia of ancient Rome. Before we lived in concrete jungles, man was dependent upon the earth, was more in tune with the cycles of nature and celebrated it. Judaism still revolves around agricultural cycles, with Succot corresponding to the winter/beginning of the rainy season and bringing the harvested crops inside. Yule is celebrated by the Wickans/Pagans. Of course, Stonehenge was specifically created to align with the sun on the winter solstice and summer solstice.
The Shortest Day, by Susan Cooper
And so the Shortest Day came and the year died
And everywhere down the centuries of the snow-white world
Came people singing, dancing,
To drive the dark away.
They lighted candles in the winter trees;
They hung their homes with evergreen;
They burned beseeching fires all night long
To keep the year alive.
And when the new year’s sunshine blazed awake
They shouted, reveling.
Through all the frosty ages you can hear them
Echoing behind us—listen!
All the long echoes, sing the same delight,
This Shortest Day,
As promise wakens in the sleeping land:
They carol, feast, give thanks,
And dearly love their friends,
And hope for peace.
And now so do we, here, now,
This year and every year.
Welcome, Yule!
Nybonsai12
Masterpiece
we are getting upper 20's overnight and then 30s-40s during the day. It feels cooler though and most of my trees don't unfreeze. I don't like to leave em frozen solid for too long, especially if it is windy which it has been. Oh well, shuffle on.
coachspinks
Chumono
Starting in early November, when the time changes, I look forward to today. Starting tomorrow, the days get longer. That means I can spend more time outside. As it is now, it is dark by 5:40 each day. We have only had a few nights below freezing so far and there are no sub freezing nights in the 10 day forecast.
I just looked at my profile and realized that I need to change it to 8b.
I just looked at my profile and realized that I need to change it to 8b.
Mikecheck123
Omono
Some of my indoor tropicals pay close attention to the winter solstice. They will start growing in just 4-5 days. Remarkable sensitivity!
Orion_metalhead
Masterpiece
Im happy with conditions so far but we'll see how the winter progresses. Trees on the ground get a slight freeze on top if not heeled in but not fully through. They unfreeze by the time I come home. Heeled in stay warm even if the lowest temp weve had is about 20F.
August
Chumono
Been in the 50s and rarely freezing at night the last couple of weeks (Denver). I am a bit concerned but the trees look good, and we usually get it worse after December here anyway. We have had a few erratic snows and it looks like it might snow on Christmas too 
Sansokuu
Chumono
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With it being an El Nino year predictions are for a warm winter in Oregon.. we planted an ume tree many years ago and it never fruits. A late frost always kills any chance of it happening. Wondering if it might do something this year before it gets chopped down 
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