Are bonsai more expensive in the U.S. than Japan?

[Attila Soos]

This is great news, as far as I am concerned

Nothing to worry about, their loss is our gain. The only people who need to worry about are those who invested massive amounts of money in top bonsai, and watch the value of their investment crash. But that's not our problem.

The decrease in interest eventually will have to bring the price of top Japanese bonsai down to earth. This way, the rest of the world will have easier access to those masterpieces that need to find a new home.

And, as Walter said, the Chinese can supply the world with reasonably cheap material for the next 50 years. Things couldn't look rosier for us! Hopefully we will live long enough to see the day when Japanese apprentices will come to Europe and the US to learn bonsai (and pick up some English on the way). In fact, this happened to China once: the Japanese learned the art from them, but these days they are the ones who can teach their neighbour a thing or two about bonsai.


P.S.: Talking about yamadori at reasonable prices: just checked out Rober Seven's blog, and the incredible yamadori that the Indonesians are offering as pre-bonsai. Some of them are very expensive, but I've seen some for just $300 - $400. If I lived in the Southern part of Europe, where the climate is mild, I would buy a few of those every year. Indonesia must be the yamadori center of the world, unmatched by any country. It's beyond amazing, what comes out of there.

 

[Pete-Regina]

This is an interesting subject! On the one hand, it's sad that there is a decline in the art in Japan; however, what I tend to see is an evolution going on...perhaps bonsai is becoming regional rather than exclusively Asian in nature. How amazing is that! American East vs. American West vs. Canadian Prairies vs. South England, all with different growing conditions and perhaps different styles? Rather than dying, I think bonsai is evolving into something even more amazing.

 

[meushi]

The decrease in interest eventually will have to bring the price of top Japanese bonsai down to earth. This way, the rest of the world will have easier access to those masterpieces that need to find a new home.

And, as Walter said, the Chinese can supply the world with reasonably cheap material for the next 50 years.

I'm not convinced that Japanese nurseries closing will bring the price of Japanese masterpieces down for us westerners. Supply/demand rules would tend to say that the trees will in fact become more expensive once it's clear that those species are no longer in wide production or distribution. The prices might fall again if another source for the same quality of material is found, but that won't happen overnight.

Also, not to knock down on the Chinese but up to now I've been very unimpressed with the quality of Chinese produced copies of Japanese products... they do serve a segment of the market due to very low prices, but the quality is often very dubious (at best). Most of my experience is with products other than bonsai, maybe they have good quality nurseries with low prices but I haven't noticed that in the quality of the imported trees I see everywhere.

 

[Alain BERTRAND]

Actually it is not limited to bonsai... most traditional Japanese arts/hobbies are considered massively uncool by the new generation. It might have something to do with those arts having been depicted as "old/rich folks hobbies" for decades as well as with the associated careers being considered unprofitable.

Michael

I totally agree with Michael's words. When I was living in Japan, I have been told quite a few times that bonsai was "jiji-kusai" (it has grand-father 's smell), but I think that there are more factors to explain the decline of bonsai there.

I also don't thing we're going to get anything good from this decline. Japan is rich not only of trees, but rich also of a knowledge about bonsai which can't be obtained and transmitted without the demanding system of apprenticeship for years.
Some pics in a japanese garden there (you may need to be logged to see the pics) :
http://www.edgbonsai-fr.com/index.php?option=com_smf&Itemid=110&topic=11710.0;topicseen. To me, this is one of the best examples of the maturity that only years can give to trees.

 

[Attila Soos]

I'm not convinced that Japanese nurseries closing will bring the price of Japanese masterpieces down for us westerners. Supply/demand rules would tend to say that the trees will in fact become more expensive once it's clear that those species are no longer in wide production or distribution. The prices might fall again if another source for the same quality of material is found, but that won't happen overnight.

Also, not to knock down on the Chinese but up to now I've been very unimpressed with the quality of Chinese produced copies of Japanese products... they do serve a segment of the market due to very low prices, but the quality is often very dubious (at best). Most of my experience is with products other than bonsai, maybe they have good quality nurseries with low prices but I haven't noticed that in the quality of the imported trees I see everywhere.

You misinterpreting my comment. The reason why the price of the high-end Japanese bonsai could come down is not because nurseries will close down. It is because the general decline of interest in bonsai. If there are less and less people who maintain large and expensive collections due to the fact that bonsai is not a "hot" investment vechicle anymore, then obviously these large collections will have to find new owners who will pay much less for them. For instance, if today there are 100 collectors with large collections, and 10 years from now you can only find 50 collectors willing to keep similar collections, this will cause and excess of high end bonsai in need for new owners. By the way, as you know, these collections are kept in shape by the apprentices of the bonsai masters. These apprentices work basically for food and lodging, in exchange for learning the craft from the master. From what I've heard from Kimura and other Japanese masters, is that future generations of youth are less likely to work in these nurseries with this kind of arrangement (no money). If one actually has to pay the apprentice to do this kind of work, this will make these bonsai masterpieces very expensive to maintain - another reason for the disappearance of large and expensive collections.

The fate of japanese nurseries that produce farm-grown bonsai material has little to do with the high-end market. That's because the high-end market is almost exclusively based on yamadori (collected material), that are hundreds of years old. The nursery material is an entirely different market. If these nurseries close down, then the shortage would indeed have an upward pressure on the price of this type of material.

As far as the Chinese markets are concerned, you obviously have not seen the quality material that they have produced. I've seen some amazing stuff coming out of China. Gone are the days when China produces exclusively low quality cheap material. Today, you can pick your choice: if you want cheap and low quality, you can find it. If you want top quality, you can find that as well. They are not cheap, but still very reasonably priced.

 

[Rick Moquin]

Thanks for clarifying post #21

 

[Attila Soos]

Thanks for clarifying post #21

Of course this is just speculation. Nobody knows what will happen in the future. Japan is well known for protecting its cultural heritage.

It could be, that when the Daizo Iwasakis and the other greats are gone, these collections will end up being protected as cultural relics (as part of the Royal collection, or other cultural institutions), and will be retired from the bonsai market - and this would ensure that the supply of these trees stays very short.


For some strange reason, this reminds me of the world's diamond market - in order to maintain the high price of the world's top diamonds, De Beers practically has bought up all the major diamond producing mines in the world, and so they are completely able to control the supply side. So, a large percentage of the major diamonds is hidden in De Beers vaults and never been seen by the public. This ensures that the supply is very tight and the prices remain high practically forever. It's called monopoly

 

[meushi]

Attila,

I actually believe both to be linked in a way... yamadori is already no longer an option for many species in Japan. There are nurseries specializing in growing "yamadori-like" trunks for those species. They may not be supplying the top quality material right now, but what they produce now might have a shoot at that in a generation or two.

I totally agree that if it ever came down to that, an extension of the ministry of culture called "Society for the Preservation of Japanese Bonsai Masterpieces" would appear. However, for that to succeed in the long term, they will have to rethink the transmission method and that will indeed increase the prices for collectors.

Michael

 

[Attila Soos]

Attila,

I actually believe both to be linked in a way... yamadori is already no longer an option for many species in Japan. There are nurseries specializing in growing "yamadori-like" trunks for those species. They may not be supplying the top quality material right now, but what they produce now might have a shoot at that in a generation or two.

No doubt, in a couple of generations they could rival collected trees.

But I was thinking more like in terms of a decade or so.